Moderna is a good short. With winter’s inexorable arrival, concept biotech looks like a good short while there are pockets of good value in high probability development projects and specialty pharma (non-generics).
New generic ROIC has dropped from unbelievable to meh. Only those who can invest heavily in capex or find extreme niches will find success. The overlevered landscape is not auspicious and may help deflate competition at the margin, but an ugly ‘new normal’ is here for generics. I would not be long TEVA, for instance. Buffett may be right (by accident) if the bet is on biosimilars (which Teva is fairly weak in), or perhaps ROW generic performance. But as far as the US is concerned, these armageddon conditions will prevail.
GSK has done a marvelous job replacing Advair/Seretide. A generic Advair would mean next to nothing to GSK now. They’ve also reshaped the portfolio quite well. Still my favorite big pharma.
SOBI’s new antibody will be really interesting.
We will be doing Celgene as the first “deep dive”. Thanks for your comments.
Papers I’ve Read
Drosophila model of myosin myopathy rescued by overexpression of a TRIM-protein family member. Dahl-Halvarsson, et al. PNAS 2018.
I am not too familiar with most of the rare disease purely-cardiac myopathies. This was a good catch-up without being a review. The workers overexpressed “Abba/Thin” to rescue Mhc-mutant phenotyes.
Local structure can identify and quantify influential global spreaders in large scale social networks. Hu et al. PNAS 2018.
I’ve been reading more applied math articles. A lot of work has been done on information “spreading” models.
Brief Review – “Things That Mattter” by Charles Krauthammer
Krauthammer is a transcendent essayist who I’d almost enter into a conspiracy to write like (criminal justice joke). This collection of essays is humbling for any writer, professional or begrudging practitioner (guess which one I am). Further, I just like this guy–a chess and math fan, a conservative and a PHYSICIAN! A lifelong spinal cord injury victim who recently passed away (I think), Krauthammer is a fairly inspirational (and perhaps missed) figure in politics.
This collection of his works shines when it discusses personal affairs, such as the death of a family member, a baseball game and other mundane “things that matter”. His political writing, especially on domestic affairs is also and convincing. He writes accessibly, endearingly and logically–usually without beating the reader over the head. The essays on his interventionalist leanings are less exciting, probably because of my own personal isolationist perspective, but still provide a narrative to consider. I recommend the book to any conservatives confused by the current hyperpartisan/no-compassion meta-neocon-nihilist environment.
In a run of bad cards or bad beats, one feels like such an idiot. In the opposite run, an unstoppable player ready for WSOP. Taming those emotions is tough and probably more than 50% of the game. The actual theories are fairly trivial and probabilistic. I think sometimes we read too much into some variables in the game: the ultra-meta is probably not where “the money is”. I’m still feeling my way around this game but I get the sense that interpreting primary game conditions (player tendency variables such as loose/tight, aggressive/passive, pre-flop playbook, general aptitude, always cbet/not always cbet; aggregate table tendencies such as volume, speed, etc.), emotional control and good theoretical underpinnings are the likely key to the game. Most top players will not edge each other out over the long run. I could be very wrong on that but I doubt the money is made being Tom Brady vs. Brett Favre, but just in being a NFL starting QB vs. not being an NFL starting QB.
My last big bad beat was a Qs flush from the flop, outdrew by the Kxo when the fourth spade flopped. Drawer is gonna draw.
Sorry for the typo in the last hand I posted! Will try not to make it happen again.
My Bills came through, in the “battle of the bums” against the sorry Jets. I pushed on the sorry Jags and lost with the Dolphins. So 9-2-1, last 12 games. I’ve toned down the NBA as my bankroll suffered but will be returning soon.
Why did it suffer? I took the Golden State moneyline, which was a “too good to be true” 40c on the dollar. Of course, for their 2nd loss of the season, the Warriors went down.
To all the US Senators who were not re-elected and used me as a campaign prop. You barked up the wrong tree. That tree fell on you. I make no apologies–you made your own bed. To all future would-be political opponents: I have a very long memory and an enormous amount of money growing at a rapid pace. Play games with your career at your own risk.