10/22/2018

Biopharma/Investing
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There are many diseases amenable to substrate replacement. I’ve designed some molecules recently.

Papers I’ve Read
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It’s good to be back to my locker(s)-full of journals. Unfortunately I really am in a conflict position on a lot of what I read.There’s very little I’m reading these days that I’m not actively pursuing or have an interest in, so it’s a little unfair to share it here. Just keep that in mind if I seem quiet.

Caliphalaxis. NEJM.
Bad disease, weak paper.

Evidance that Leonardo da Vinci Had Strabismus. JAMA.
They ran a p-value on paintings, LMAO!

Personal
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Good news! We’re back in our building after a 3 week relocation. The computers have real keyboards again, perfectly destructible. Sorry I was away–those keyboards were really awful. I’ll try and write more!!! I am amazingly busy as I’ve mentioned. And without reader feedback it’s hard to stay too engaged. If someone wants to step up and actually send me comments so that I can respond, I would definitely do that! If you are on the “CORRLINKS/TRULINCS” system with me, that would work easily. Perhaps my Dad will do it!? It would require not only reading the comments but then posting them to the WordPress site. That’s probably too much for the old man.

Basketball season has started–very exciting. The NFL action this week was fairly predicatable. I stayed away from the Eagles game and thankfully avoided the fate of others who favored the team. The Bills are humorously bad without Allen. The Patriots were the “lock” and delivered. The Vikings were in a similar situation against the woeful Jets. The Browns surprised me, yet again. What an improvement from last year.

Helping inmates here is a challenge. One fellow adds a superfluous -ed to verbs already conjugated with an -ed. When you say that you likeded that album, a part of me dies. Others make small improvements but in general time is spent here entertaining oneself. Whatever TV shows, music, etc. we can be exposed to trumps any self-help. It’s hard to change everyone. Social justice is even harder. I reprimand anyone who utters homophobic slurs but I sense this negative feedback is not always welcome.

34 thoughts on “10/22/2018”

  1. I’d like to step up and send comments! How would I be able to connect with you on either the CORRLINKS/TRULINCS systems. I’ve made an account but see that an identification code is required.

  2. Why does it needs to be posted on a wordpress site? I might be interested in this task. Always wondered how i could help out. Also ive been planning to write you but i never get to it!!

  3. Send comments? I’ve tried!

    1) What is the status of Godel Systems? Some of us are very curios about that????

    2) What is your career plans once you get out??

    Would be amazing if you adress this in the next post!

    – Christian S Thomsen

  4. Lannett seems like a good BO target given the refinancing pressure; particularly on their short-term debt. Their portfolio is intriguing as well as the cash flow if the debt is rebalanced; plus they have cody labs which could be repurposed for just about anything. Cover your short and submit an offer.

    1. Lannett’s net debt is only $450M so they were to rebalance short-term assets theoretically you could retire almost half of the current debt. The short term asset load is costing 10 percent on every dollar.

      Total Current Assets=527 M
      Receviables=250M
      Inventories=150M
      Cash=99M

      Current Liabilities=200M
      Short term debt=67M (plus interest)
      Accts Payable=57M
      other=70M

      Clearly an imbalance here.

      Lannett’s Gross Profit Margin going forward won’t be 40%, it may reach 30%. Lannett’s 42% Gross Profit Margin for 2018 benefited from Levo’s 60% margin. Take that away and the rest of revenue had only a 32% margin. Presuming new products will have lower margins that will drive average margin even lower.

      Assuming 30 percent margins LCI had revenue of $685 million in 2018. Subtract from that the $253 million from JSP and you’re left with $432 million. Let’s be generous and say that LCI will find an additional $68 million in revenue, which brings it to an even $500 million in revenue. With a Gross Profit Margin of 30% we end up with $150 million in Gross Profit. The Total Operating Expenses for 2018 were $159 million, so that’s $9 million short before any interest or principal has been paid on their debt.Reducing capex/operations is a must but then again so is increasing cash flow.

      LCI neesd to dilute, or more ideally, a massive short squeeze followed by dilution. Martin, you know a thing or two about short squeezes no 😉

  5. In regard to reader feedback, I enjoy reading of ones experiences. Gives a different perspective of ‘prison life’.

    With the time you have, do you have any ‘bright ideas/plans’ which you will take into outer-prison life? Or is that not in the forefront of ones mind?

  6. Hi Martin!

    Off topic but I just wanted to say that you are a big inspiration för me and that you sparked my interest in finance. I’ve watched all your lectures on finance and learned DCF-modeling thx to you.

    Best Regards,
    William, Swedish Econ-student

  7. Hello Martin!
    Hope you are doing ok. I’ll be reading ur blog from now on. I used to, sometimes, watch ur You Tube live-streams. I guess, because I come from healthcare and have always been interested in pharmacology. Also, you seemed pretty cool.
    How much longer you in for? Some of us would like to see you out again and thriving. You are missed. ❤️
    Keep inventing new drugs & stay just like you are, unique.

    Jacqueline
    PS I follow ur cat on Instagram. He(she?) seems to be doing fine.😻 Sure He misses you though…

  8. I had no idea I could comment! I’m glad you’re talking about Football, because I’ve always had a theory that the intuition involved in predicting Football is similar to that of investing, but I’m also a degenerate retard, so who knows.

    What do you think of the Bears? Is Mack worth it yet?

  9. dear Martin; had chance to meet you in person 3 times
    you’re a unique talent; very intelligent. nothing but respect.
    don’t think pharma/biotech is where you will make your mark
    you should focus on video games/e-gaming/digital content
    that’s secular growth at its best w/ zero FDA interference
    you will be blacklisted and find a hard time in pharma after prison
    suggest you pivot career and find new areas to add value …
    we (and hundreds alike) will continue to support & cheer you on.
    consider running for office and reforming prison/bail system.
    you could literally be Mayor of NYC in a decade – if you play your cards right. Have a good week Martin! stay strong. keep writing.

  10. I’ve worked with improving people for a very long time in both the Marines, and Government (DHS/ DIA) with IT. Most if not all people are stuck in their cycles and don’t really care about what’s holding them back. Good luck with that.

  11. Hi Martin, hope your well. I still watch your YouTube videos quite a lot. I have a finance background but I‘m mainly interested in science. It would be really cool if you could do some massive science posts that are educational. Like the glossaries you did a while back but bigger. Thanks for still posting stuff. Really appreciate it and check on here quite a lot to see if there is anything new.

  12. Oh Great one,

    You were reasonably bullish on GBT some months ago (as was I)- how do you respond to the questions surrounding safety (and perhaps you’ve seen the Feuerstein report? Your comments would be much appreciated) and performance on the secondary endpoint?

    Additionally, have you seen the Crizanlizumab results? How will this bode for GBT? What is your outlook now?

    Thank you very much in advance for your time and consideration.

    Disclaimer: I’m a mere finance student, who was magnetised by the field of healthcare by your work, and support.

    All the very best,

    Shkreli Jr.

  13. I would be more than happy to set up a system of corresponding comments to ol’ Martin through CORRLINKS. Does anyone have any way of getting in contact with him or whomever runs this site for him?
    I can’t imagine it would be much effort to get it going, and I know it’s nice to have some more contact with the outside world while locked up.

    Thanks in advance,
    Steve

  14. Hope you’re holding up alright in there!

    What’s your take on the shut down of certain people on the internet, specifically on social media in recent times? People not on the left side of the fence..

    A dangerous time for free speech?

  15. happy to hear from you 🙂
    and I hope you enjoy red dead redemption 2
    what do you think of the rise in interest rates ?

    take care of yourself

  16. I would engage more but i sent you a letter and you never responded. I guess you think i am a bum. But i still enjoy your video tutorials, writings and humor so there’s that 😛

  17. Hi Martin,

    I’m an Engineer by profession and I recently discovered your YouTube lessons.

    Thank you so so much for giving the world your precious time and knowledge. When you explain, it is so easy to understand! I know I’m using your lessons to learn about a new world that I knew nothing about and seemed complicated. Now, it’s going to help me and my family retire early and spend more time together and do good in the world.

    Just know that there are many people that understand who you truly are and are rooting for you. I’ll be in touch. Be good and be strong.

    Best,
    Kaushik

  18. MARTIN!!!..YOU AIN’T SHITTTT!!!…BAD MUTHA FUCKA YOU!!! 😁…WHATS GOOD LIL BRO!!!CMD!!!…WE LOVE YOU.

  19. Do they apply that to irregular verbs too? :-0

    Glad to have discovereded this. So great to read you. I imagine you are greatly contributing to men in the “resort.”

    Miss you :'(,
    M.

  20. Martin — clearly you’re looking to see who is paying attention. It did not go unnoticed by this observer that your reference to ‘substrate replacement’ was intended a reference to a specific company.

    What previously mentioned rare disease company recently made the jump into the world of ‘substrate replacement, and today earned a Rare Pediatric Designation? Why CERC, of course!

    Some of us are following closely and thrilled you again have functioning keyboards within arm’s reach . Thanks as always for your commentary and expert opinion!

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