10/3/18

Biopharma/Investing
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So many distressed generics companies. ACET, LCI, TEVA, AKRX, CXR. There has been a bunch of consolidation: Sandoz/Aurobindo, Teva/Actavis, Amneal/Impax, Aceto/Citron, Lannet/Kremers, Stada/PE, . I think you have to see some more Indian consolidation. Perhaps Sun, Cipla, Lupin or Dr. Reddy’s will flex their muscles.

What do y’all think of the PTCT data?

Boston Pharmaceuticals didn’t get the memo that you can’t have a successful antibiotic company in 2018.

Clinical Trials I Noticed
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A Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Reversibility of Abacavir/Lamivudine/Dolutegravir CNS-Related Neurotoxicity After Switching to Tenofovir Alafenamide/Emtricitabine/Darunavir/Cobicistat
J&J funded.

Safety and Antitumor Activity Study of Loncastuximab Tesirine and Durvalumab in DLBCL, MCL or FL. ADC Therapeutics.
Safety and Antitumor Activity Study of Loncastuximab Tesirine + Ibrutinib in DLBCL or MCL.
ADC is one of the most exciting private companies. Target here is CD19.

PF-06952229 Treatment in Adult Patients with Advanced Solid Tumors. Pfizer.
Despite the title, this study is enrolling only breast and prostate cancer. My guess is its some androgen/steroid synthesis inhibitor. MOA unknown/unpublished.

A Study of FT2102 in Participants With Advanced Solid Tumors and Gliomas With an IDH1 Mutation. Forma Therapeutics.
Another IDH competitor–this drug, olutasidenib, makes me wonder if AGIO is a short. CELG has a bunch of weird options on Forma’s programs (and company).

Intratumoral AST-008 Combined With Pembrolizumab in Patients with Advanced Solid Tumors. Exicure.
I never understood the whole “stab the tumor with a drug” thing. I suppose there are non-resectable lesions that are still accessible by injection? Anyway, DVAX is doing this, too.

Effect of Shortening the Palatal Extension of the Mouthguard on the Degree of Satisfaction of Water Polo Players. University of Barcelona.
I hope these brave scientists conducting this ground-breaking research are successful.

Psychoeduc Interv. Through Meta-universes on Condom’s Use Self-Efficacy and Sexual Behavior in Students of UAChile.
Speaks for itself, really

Personal
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The computers here have new keyboards which are horrible. “The Virtually Indestructible Keyboard” does seem indestructible but it also virtually unusable. I’m an expert typist–I feel bad for the two-finger typers here.

Closing in on 34 months to go. This bid is about how much time I spent in college, not studying.

Football
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How good are the Chiefs?!!
My formula says Patriots have an 86% chance of beating the Colts. My other formula says they win by 15 points with R^2=0.5. Line is -10.5 with ML implying 75% win odds.

 

26 thoughts on “10/3/18”

  1. Unrelated but I have been following you online for some time and it’s clear you have a great ability to teach. I think it would be cool if you created some sort of prompt and selected the best responses, similar to what you were doing with your weekly investing videos.

  2. Could you elaborate on your ML methodology?
    You should check out Kaggle’s march mania competition if you are seriously interested in improving your algorithm.

    Thoughts on Carter 5 releasing/ Musk drama?

  3. Chiefs offense is good. Their D needs to get better if the want to win the Superbowl. Their’s a good chance they get to the Superbowl but the Rams Defense would dominate.

  4. I assume its a linear regression model? If so, the high R^2 may be explained by a high number of variables, what’s the adjusted R^2?

    Also are the all variables exogenous? No omitted variable bias?

  5. Hi Martin!
    Longtime fan, first time poster here.
    Being of the standard stoic morality that admits to placing those they love, those they are allied with and those they do not know in a fairly obvious hierarchy of prioritization, I am interested in eventually funding pharmaceutical research out of altruistic motivation. It is absurd to let disease wreak havoc on our nation when we have so much potential to help ourselves and the world in general. My current mental model of the issue is that pharmaceutical developers must be incredibly skilled and hardworking, but do not receive much status in society corresponding to their sacrifices because the public cannot think past the high prices of some drugs that must be priced so to be profitable or fund the development of more drugs, given the scarce talent. The high price of drugs lowers the status of skill, the lack of skill keeps the price of drugs high. I wonder what size of an impulse would be necessary to push out of this local maxima. For example, a billion dollars set aside to pay for the college education of more skilled workers in the industry or just payed directly into the development of new drugs. Since the deal is partly with status, maybe a message to the public attached to such a massive event could itself be influential.
    Over what time period do you think we can cure the rest of the diseases? I figure that extreme poverty will be out by 2036 based on current rates. (Of course, I personally place priority on the poverty of the indian reservations and urban youth in America because I am a nationalist) I want to know what the time range is on curing what diseases we can. I don’t know much about pharmaceuticals, but I know that you do and you might be able to see a general trend in the rate of curing diseases and the prevalence of the diseases that have been cured. Don’t puzzle too much over this, I know that people like ourselves have a tendency to overcalculate or, worse, fixate on a metric. It probably wouldn’t change my current aspirations for acquiring resources, since I need substantial resources no matter how I will protect the ones I love and aid my allies over the course of the next century.
    I just want to refocus on that last word. Martin, you are a genius with free time and willpower. Whenever you get out of purgatory, you will have a great share in the miracles we can work in this century. Literally the start of a technological golden age. Space elevators, cities on Mars, efficient energy sources and all sorts of crazy shit. Hang tight bro, the future smiles upon specimens of your selection.
    I think it is really cute how you have successful, loyal friends in the pharmaceutical industry who take care of your instagram and blog for you. I think I also looked at some of their pictures once and they were beautiful folks. Never forget to check your having-decent-human-beings-for-friends privilege, Shkrelster.

  6. Martin, I would very much like to work with you when you get out. Hope you’re doing well and making big plans for the future Please keep me in mind for future ventures.
    Best Wishes -Joe
    djhjjkdjhjjk@gmail.com – …yes that is my real email address

  7. im sure prison sucks martin! that sucks that they nailed u on that bs. i hope u continue to fuck shit up when youre out just dont mess the big daddies again

  8. LCI is not a viable buyout candidate until their new product launches are effectually realized and that won’t happen until atleast the second half of 2019. They have a lease agreement with cody labs and their Methlyphenidate and C-Topical seem to be their most viable products but not particularly exciting. They have just filed that their good will right down will be 331 million. I spoke with Robert Jaffe their investor relations spokesperson and he did mention something about a marijuana product. I am not sure if he spoke out of turn or not.

  9. Jaguars plus 125 over Chiefs (Moneyline)
    Broncos -1 over Jets (Spread)
    Titans -.5.5 over Bills (Spread)
    Panthers -280 over giants (moneyLine)
    Dolphins +6 over bengals (spread)
    Cardinals +3.5 over 49ers (spread)

    Weight your bets as you please.

  10. Glad you still write and as a college student, huge thank you to your chemistry and how to analyze clinical trial videos. Einhorn recently went as far to compare tesla to lehman brothers, not very sure what to make of that just yet. I would say I enjoyed your vocab lists, though I understand if its a hassle since everything is on google anyway. But looking foward to your posts.

  11. Hello Martin,
    I’m also interested in proprietary research and its really hard to find resources on internet that’s actually solid. Since you’re very good at finding great educational resources, could you share what papers,textbooks,lectures that you liked ? Thanks.

  12. Your Pearson Correlation Coefficient r2=.5 which is a very strong correlation of the x and y axis. What data sets did that compare?

  13. Martin, as a fellow Alexion bull, I’d love to hear your thoughts on complement protein 3 inhibition as a competitor to eculizumab/ravulizumab. There appear to benefits in terms of hemoglobin levels in very, very small samples of patients (n=4, which isn’t very reliable). I’m a college student minoring in biology, so from my basic understanding of the complement system, completely inhibiting C3 would prevent opsonization and could lead to more serious infections, or am I off-base here?

  14. Hi.

    I recently re-discovered you via a post on Hacker News about your Excel skills (here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18150833)

    I’m new to following anyone on a regular basis, but seeing how you have a lot of time on your hands and you’re interested in many of the same things I am, I’m interested in seeing what you’re up to.

    I’m curious if you’d be open to sharing your favorite reads (ever). A couple of mine:

    – The Road by Cormac McCarthy
    – Shantaram by Gregory David Roberts

    Rgs.

  15. Chiefs usually start out strong and finished sub-par. I do think they can work on there defense and not give up so much points. However, Patrick Mahomes seems like the real deal. He’s a play maker and can make those plays when it counts. Looking forward to them making the Superbowl or at least far in the playoffs. Kind of sick seeing the usual contenders.

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