Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 12, Immunity, and Prostate Cancer. Emmanuel S. Antonarakis. NEJM 379;13:1087-1089.
So CDK12 mutants are PD1-inhibitor sensitive. The bigger question is why am I reading a summary of a Cell paper in NEJM? If I wanted “basic research”, I’d read (and I do) Cell (although this work is more “translational” than “basic”, if you can figure out that meta).

Status dystonicus due to missense variant in ARX: diagnosis and management. Gorman et al. Eu J Pediatric Neurology 2018.
I’ve always followed epileptic encephalopathies. They’re tragic and have so many different causes–a good combination for a drug developer. I don’t know much about ARX–just a non-descript development protein to me–and this paper doesn’t help much. Having said that, status dystonicus is extremely rare. Sometimes found in PKAN.

Limiting State Flexibility in Drug Pricing. Bagley & Sachs. NEJM 397;11:1002-1004.
Bagley & Sachs use Exondys as a scapegoat for changing Medicaid law. This is a drug that is so rarely used it is not even close to 0.1% of drug spend. But they need to rewrite laws because of it. Is anyone else sick of this? If this was a peer-reviewed journal, it would never fly.

Had a very nice Thanksgiving here! Turkey sandwich was banging.

Poker is a little better. I have to play more aggressively. No more 2x raises (unless it is for misdirection). Tightening up a bit in the situations where I lose a lot: Ace and low kicker (9 or less). I did get crippled on one hand:

I’m dealt AKo in late position. UTG calls, I raise 3x, villain-felon calls. Flop is rainbow AK3. He bets the pot and I call. The next card is a 7. He bets the pot and I call. I figure he has A and a low kicker, maybe even two pairs. Finally a J shows on the river. Can you predict the rest? He bets I reraise, he calls and flips the Q10o. I could have just called or folded I suppose. The hand would have cost a lot less.

From Inside A Hole – A Poem
the slit opens.
the tiny portal to the world.
slices of fetid turkey are thrown through.
the cold floor greets the meal.
a cranberry sludge drips through the hole,
obscuring a gang oath since rescinded.
“Happy Thanksgiving.”
a surprised grunt returns my valediction
and the door slams.
it’s enough.

19 thoughts on “11/23/18”

  1. Beautiful Poem, a young Shakespeare at heart.

    Have you done any research on Insmed? $0 rev, $1.3B MC. Sitting on a fat stack, $550m cash. Novel oral drug phase 3 results expected in July ’19. Seems like a solid management team, however.

  2. Have you tried a swole yet? AKA Goulash. If you didnt like one chef’s recipe, dont lose hope, its a skill not easily acquired.

  3. What are your feelings on the Horton Works Cloudera merger and future of cloud based AI integration. Both these companies have partnerships with intel and IBM, and yet Cloudera’s stock has cratered to all time lows? I have initiated a position in CLDR as a move up to earnings and will probably hold something for the long term as well.

  4. Yo Martin, not posting effective stack size (ie the smallest stack size between you and vilain) when posting a poker hand make it all analyze irrelevant. In this particular hand, stack size would determine if you should have called and mucked your hand on the river.

    You should read Professional No-Limit Hold ’em: Volume I and learn about SPR (stack to pot ratio) pretty easy concept to learn and should make you win a lot of easy $$$ in loose prison cash game

  5. Raise 4x vs one limper in position. In future hand histories please include effective stack sizes in big blinds. Raise on the river seems good.

  6. Definitely should be raising more than 3x vs open limper. When you raise 3bb the limper only needs to risk 2bb to 7.5bb (blinds plus your raise and his call) and only needs 26.6% equity vs your raising range to break even calling your raise. I’d recommend a 5x sizing facing a limp where the limper would need 34.7% equity but you also lower the stack the pot ratio which will increase your overall EV in the hand. Post flop I like how you played it. I need to know the site you’re playing on so I can bumhunt. I play 200nl mostly as mango25nl on carbon.

  7. As someone who have spent the better part of this decade studying poker, I can give some advice as to how to get better. The concept of nash equilibrium is key when it comes to evaluating if a play is good or bad. Things really began to click for me when I started thinking to myself: “How would I play if my opponent knew every detail of my strategy and adapted accordingly?”. I of course don’t mean that your opponent in the hand above would know that you had AKo specifically. I simply mean that he would know every detail about your range of hands (meaning how often you have AKo, and how often you have any other hand when taking this line). If he knew exactly what you were doing, what would be his perfect response? Given his perfect response, what would you change about your strategy? You can go back and forth like this and try to figure out the equilibrium. The equilibrium will of course be when both players have the perfect response to eachothers strategy simultaneously.

    I’d suggest playing around with some river toy-games to practice finding equilibriums in simplified versions of the game. This will give insight that will be useful for the full game as well. I’ll provide you a river situation you can try to analyze, and you can invent others on your own.

    Board: 2s 2h 2d 3h 3c
    Out of position player range: {6 combos of AA, 6 combos of QQ}
    In position player range: {6 combos of KK}
    Pot: $100
    Effective stacksize: $100
    Allowed actions: All-in, check

    Can you find the nash equilibrium in this toy-game? Stop right here and try if you’d like.

    If you’re struggling I’ll provide some questions that might guide you along: How should the out of position player (OOP) play AA? If OOP only goes all-in with AA and never QQ, how should the in position player (IP), respond with his KK? If OOP goes all-in always no matter what he has, how should IP respond with his KK? How often should OOP go all-in with QQ to make IP do equally well by calling as by folding KK? Finally, how often should IP call KK to make OOP do equally well by going all-in with QQ as by checking it?

    Something worth mentioning is that any hand always should choose the option that is maximizes expectation. This means it’s only correct for a hand to use a mixed strategy if both options are equally good (KK and QQ from the example). When a hand gets played in various ways we say that it’s indifferent between those options.

    A final thing you can try to calculate is how much of the pot OOP and IP walks away with given perfect play.

    If you’re reading this Martin, I hope it was somewhat interesting. And happy new year! I miss your streams.

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