11/23/18

Papers
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Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 12, Immunity, and Prostate Cancer. Emmanuel S. Antonarakis. NEJM 379;13:1087-1089.
So CDK12 mutants are PD1-inhibitor sensitive. The bigger question is why am I reading a summary of a Cell paper in NEJM? If I wanted “basic research”, I’d read (and I do) Cell (although this work is more “translational” than “basic”, if you can figure out that meta).

Status dystonicus due to missense variant in ARX: diagnosis and management. Gorman et al. Eu J Pediatric Neurology 2018.
I’ve always followed epileptic encephalopathies. They’re tragic and have so many different causes–a good combination for a drug developer. I don’t know much about ARX–just a non-descript development protein to me–and this paper doesn’t help much. Having said that, status dystonicus is extremely rare. Sometimes found in PKAN.

Limiting State Flexibility in Drug Pricing. Bagley & Sachs. NEJM 397;11:1002-1004.
Bagley & Sachs use Exondys as a scapegoat for changing Medicaid law. This is a drug that is so rarely used it is not even close to 0.1% of drug spend. But they need to rewrite laws because of it. Is anyone else sick of this? If this was a peer-reviewed journal, it would never fly.

Personal
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Had a very nice Thanksgiving here! Turkey sandwich was banging.

Poker is a little better. I have to play more aggressively. No more 2x raises (unless it is for misdirection). Tightening up a bit in the situations where I lose a lot: Ace and low kicker (9 or less). I did get crippled on one hand:

I’m dealt AKo in late position. UTG calls, I raise 3x, villain-felon calls. Flop is rainbow AK3. He bets the pot and I call. The next card is a 7. He bets the pot and I call. I figure he has A and a low kicker, maybe even two pairs. Finally a J shows on the river. Can you predict the rest? He bets I reraise, he calls and flips the Q10o. I could have just called or folded I suppose. The hand would have cost a lot less.

From Inside A Hole – A Poem
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the slit opens.
the tiny portal to the world.
slices of fetid turkey are thrown through.
the cold floor greets the meal.
a cranberry sludge drips through the hole,
obscuring a gang oath since rescinded.
“Happy Thanksgiving.”
a surprised grunt returns my valediction
and the door slams.
it’s enough.

17 thoughts on “11/23/18”

  1. Beautiful Poem, a young Shakespeare at heart.

    Have you done any research on Insmed? $0 rev, $1.3B MC. Sitting on a fat stack, $550m cash. Novel oral drug phase 3 results expected in July ’19. Seems like a solid management team, however.

  2. Have you tried a swole yet? AKA Goulash. If you didnt like one chef’s recipe, dont lose hope, its a skill not easily acquired.

  3. What are your feelings on the Horton Works Cloudera merger and future of cloud based AI integration. Both these companies have partnerships with intel and IBM, and yet Cloudera’s stock has cratered to all time lows? I have initiated a position in CLDR as a move up to earnings and will probably hold something for the long term as well.

  4. Yo Martin, not posting effective stack size (ie the smallest stack size between you and vilain) when posting a poker hand make it all analyze irrelevant. In this particular hand, stack size would determine if you should have called and mucked your hand on the river.

    You should read Professional No-Limit Hold ’em: Volume I and learn about SPR (stack to pot ratio) pretty easy concept to learn and should make you win a lot of easy $$$ in loose prison cash game

  5. Raise 4x vs one limper in position. In future hand histories please include effective stack sizes in big blinds. Raise on the river seems good.

  6. Definitely should be raising more than 3x vs open limper. When you raise 3bb the limper only needs to risk 2bb to 7.5bb (blinds plus your raise and his call) and only needs 26.6% equity vs your raising range to break even calling your raise. I’d recommend a 5x sizing facing a limp where the limper would need 34.7% equity but you also lower the stack the pot ratio which will increase your overall EV in the hand. Post flop I like how you played it. I need to know the site you’re playing on so I can bumhunt. I play 200nl mostly as mango25nl on carbon.

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