11/30/2018

Biopharma/Investing
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I’m almost done with Celgene deep dive. I have some conflicts of interest so there a few things I won’t discuss. I’ve also been busy with other reading, so, sorry for the delay. The upshot is CELG is fairly valued at worst and slightly undervalued at best. Incredible execution would allow for a good return, say, 50-100% over the next 5 years. It would take extraordinary executive performance, that is unlikely to occur, however. Probably not worth touching in general but somewhat tempting long. More details (pages and pages) soon.

How bad is “STAT”? My friends send me news summaries on biopharma everyday and the STAT one is the sorriest. STAT publishes more on public health issues than pharmaceuticals. That’s fine, I guess, if you’re morbidly interested in Ebola and don’t care about new FDA approvals and interesting clinical data. SCRIP is far better from my perspective, for the pharma professional, at least. Also, the anti-pharma and anti-Trump viewpoint of STAT shines through. It’s like they want all the failings of a major news organization without any of the benefit of being healthcare-focused. I predict a shutdown within 24 months. Mic has recently shutdown. I will not be surprised when more web properties shut down as Google/Facebook continue to gain Internet ad spend share, spend which will decline in a recession, leaving leaders like Vice, Business Insider, Buzzfeed, etc. scrambling for capital and cost-cutting, and totally bankrupting most of the “New Media” no one reads and fewer (readers or advertisers) pay for.

Papers I’ve Read
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Structural basis for dual-mode inhibition of the ABC transporter MsbA. Hoangdung Ho, Anh Miu, Mary Kate Alexander, Natalie Garcia, et al. Nature 2018.
Gram-negative bacteria employ a “double membrane” to maintain cellular integrity. Lipopolysaccharide, or LPS, composes the outer membrane and generally keeps drugs out of the cytosol. LPS, of course, drives our human toll-like receptors wild. MsbA (a unidirectional transporter) transports cytosolic LPS to the outer membrane. These Genentech scientists took the first high-resolution co-crystal of MsbA with an inhibitor discovered from a 3,000,000 compound screen. Normally I don’t read antibiotic papers, but this is quite the exception given the famous intransigence of the outer membrane. This high-quality work is the kind one aspires to.

Sports/Games/Poker
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2-2 in NFL weekend. The Cardinals bet was meant to be tiny. The Dolphins and Bills came through, but the Eagles disappointed by letting the Giants keep it close. The Giants looked great in the first half!

Have been playing around 1800 ELO in chess. Will post some games.

Went 1-1 with GS and IND last night in basketball. Didn’t touch the incredible DAL-NO NFL game. Formulae said go with DAL but only marginally.

Personal
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I’ve been suffering from a terrible toothache the last few days. This has led to record lows in productivity and new milestones in whining.

They sell bacon here. I have a lot of expired bacon. I eat it anyway. IDGAF.

Update: I had the tooth filled. I think I have an infection, though. The healthcare people here are really good. And free. I love my free, government-paid-for healthcare.

18 thoughts on “11/30/2018”

  1. I’m sorry Martin but I’d bet my left nut you aren’t playing 1800 ELO chess. I’ve seen you do tactics training and play on ICC. A 1200 ELO estimate would be more than generous. Still though, best wishes.

  2. Been watching alot of your recorded streams. Your persona motivates me to use my talents and transform them in to something fruitful and tangible in my life. Hope you’re doing well and that the toothache goes away promptly!

    //from a guy in Sweden

  3. Sometimes you gotta take a break pal. Joshua Waitzkin used to take 3 months off from chess and he claimed he came back more energized and with fresh ideas.

  4. Martin told me he is a 1300 ELO player. I don’t know where you’re getting 1800 from. How is that relevant to his post?

    1. “Have been playing around 1800 ELO in chess. Will post some games.” Hence my comment that he’s nowhere near 1800 ELO. Also, there’s a reply feature so you can respond directly to comments.

      1. I don’t think actually 1800 elo he’s just feeling really focused and probably gotten a bit stronger but definitely not possible to get to 1800 from 1300 in just a few months unless you’re a young kid. I’ve never seen an adult achieve this feat.

  5. I don’t know if your damnation of new media companies is well thought out. As much as I would love for them to die, I don’t see it happening.

  6. Looking forward to the CELG deep dive. Been a while since the long form deep dive. You must qualify as the most productive inmates the government went to lengths to indict. Keep it going!

  7. Yep. Hard pass on prison for the lack of electric toothbrushes. I’m in SHOCK that they treated you for a dental issue & that you thought it was quality care. Does this free government-paid-for healthcare mean that you are on welfare? Ahhhh, to be a poor, jailed, welfare recipient….

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