11/5/2018

Biopharma/Investing
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So, I guess we’ll find out if the Pfizer/Glycomimetics drug for sickle cell works next year.

I still like SRPT and GBT.

Interesting to see VRTX’s early stage programs include FSGS (hey, that’s my disease!) and PKD. What’s up with that!

I think I will do a “deep-dive” for a stock, including a full DCF (done in my notebooks!). I’ll try and shoot for one stock a week. That’ll cover 52 stocks out of a universe of… 500? Not much coverage but I beg the reader’s forgiveness. Maybe I can do two some weeks.

Clinical Trials I’ve Noticed
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Compassionate Use Individual Request Program for GSK525762 in NUT Midline Carcinoma. Drug: molibresib. GlaxoSmithKline
This BET inhibitor must be working for GSK to take this action.

Lenalidomide in Anti-MAG Neuropathy. Phase Ib Study.
I’ve never heard of Anti-MAG Neuropathy. Seems like myasthenia gravis. Might be a good indication for would-be drug company builders.

A RETROspective Study of Patients with TK2d. Drug: dC/dT. Modis Therapeutics Inc.
This Orbimed-funded orphan drug company just announced a $30m Series A. I don’t know a lot about this disease or putative drug, but interested in learning more. Someone shoot me a paper or two on this, please.

Assess the Gluten Degradation Activity of PvP001 and PvP002 in Healthy Adult Volunteers. PvP Biologics, Inc.
This Celiac Disease-focused company is fairly quiet about what they do. I wonder what these drugs are… oral enzymes perhaps? Could be a big product but I thought Takeda had rights.

BHV-4157 in Adult Subjects with Spinocerebellar Ataxia. Troriluzole. Biohaven Pharmaceuticals Inc.
I know very little about BHVN but I do know a lot about riluzole. I suspect this riluzole derivative will do nothing, but who knows.

Daunorubicin and Cytarabine With or Without Uproleselan in Treating Older Adult Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia Receiving Intensive Induction Chemotherapy. NCI.
This is Glycomimetic’s E-selectin drug.

Pinometostat and 5-Azacitidine in Treating Patients With Relapsed, Refractory, or Newly Diagnosed Acute Myeloid Leukemia With 11q23 Rearrangement. NCI.
This is Epizyme’s DOT1L drug.

Brief Review – My Inventions – The Autobiography of Nikola Tesla
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I found this tiny volume confirmatory of the recent biography: Tesla is simultaneously delusional and brilliant. He’s a man of science but also of the supernatural. Truly one of the most bizarre individuals I’ve ever read about.

I’ll try to make a book “section” of the site. If anyone is a WordPress pro perhaps my people can reach out to you to coordinate this. A simple list of books I’ve read while I’ve been in my New Jersey office might be interesting to the reader.

Sports
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The Patriots, Steelers and Chiefs came through and my small token on the Bills did not (so much for their fearsome defense). I’m 8/9 in my last few football selections. My algorithm is a fairly simple relative-strength stochastic. I think the big question is how much “decay” one builds into memory. Does a team’s performance from last year matter? Two years ago? Is there a variable one could create to model individual player performance longitudinally and another variable to assess team roster identity? Lots of ways to improve an algorithm. Lots of ways to mess it up, too 🙂

So much for the Knicks as well. I forgot to include the “never bet on the Knicks” function that all NYers have come to appreciate. The Wizards have a pretty good roster but a bad start to the season. Hard to predict those things. I also flunked on the T’Wolves game but did pick up the Raptors/Lakers. Poor Lebron. My basketball look-back period is very short, unlike football, and a few other differences exist between formulae.

Personal
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I have to refill prescriptions here, just like in the real world. Go figure. No copay.

75% of the people here shouldn’t be here. I doubt our founding fathers wanted a prison state where most individuals are incarcerated for long periods of time for owning guns and peddling “illegal drugs”. Very sad. So often, jail is an expected outcome of a troubled, urban youth. The cost of incarceration is incredible and few lessons are learned. If anything, the inmate is set back further from potential redemption.

I fear the plethora of cats that cohabitate this compound will be very cold this winter. The tough guy persona the reader has come to love is betrayed by my love for these furry interlopers. The cats are well-fed, thanks to inmate willingness to share lunch. I sometimes wonder if while lounging about they ask each other what they’re in for. “Ate the dog’s treats.” “Catnip, possession and intent to sell.” “Dogslaughter. (gasp!)”.

18 thoughts on “11/5/2018”

  1. Algorithms can only take you so far in NFL betting. Sometimes you need to step back and think to yourself “is Nathan Peterman quarterbacking for this team?” and if the answer is yes, you should probably take the other side, even if it means giving up 30 points.

  2. Thanks for the regular updates. You are an inspiration!

    Regarding GBT, a decision regarding the potential approval of voxelotor is expected shortly. Many have cast doubts on its prospects, given that, as yet, the drug has not been shown to reduce the frequency of vaso-occlusive crises, or improve quality of life. However, we know that the FDA is now more willing to accept data from surrogate endpoints – so the outcome will be very interesting indeed.

    I very much look forward the ‘deep dive’ features!

  3. What do you think of The Market’s reaction to ARGX-110 data? ARGX went up a TON on phase 1, single-arm data that LOOKS really good, but only has 12 patients. Do you think it’s unwarranted, overblown, or justified? Reminds me a bit of The Market’s reaction to NKTR-214 data. Excerpt of press release below:

    argenx (Euronext & Nasdaq: ARGX), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing a deep pipeline of differentiated antibody-based therapies for the treatment of severe autoimmune diseases and cancer, today announced updated data from the ongoing Phase 1 dose-escalation part of its Phase 1/2 clinical trial of cusatuzumab (ARGX-110) in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and high-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). As of the data cut-off on July 16, 2018, a 92% (11/12 patients) overall response rate (ORR) was observed, with 42% of patients achieving minimal residual disease (MRD) negativity. The median response duration was 6.9 months as of the data cut-off date.

    I love you so much!!!

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