Earnings season is in full swing! Oh ALNY… probably a good long here…

Would readers prefer a “deep-dive” on CELG or AMGN?

Papers I’ve Read
Will Courts Allow States to Regulate Drug Prices? Christopher Robertson, JD, PhD. NEJM 2018.
This isn’t a paper, just drivel the NEJM allowed published for some self-destructive reason. States can’t “regulate” drug prices. Countries that have ONE payor, that country’s government health body, cannot “regulate” drug prices, either. What happened when Greece couldn’t pay for Roche’s cancer drugs? Do you think Roche let Greece give them IOUs? No. They cut of supplies of life-saving medicines to a country that chose not to pay due to financial difficulty. The writer of the article seems to propose states should have the option to do the same. What this poor fellow confuses is regulation and access. Firms have a choice as to what they’ll supply at what price. If Maryland’s ill-fated attempt (reversed by Circuit Court) for drug price regulation were to somehow be found legal again, companies like mine would just stop selling to Maryland.

Maybe they can ask Greece for advice?

Clinical Trials I Noticed
CLN-0046: Treatment of AMD Subjects with OTX-TKI. Ocular Therapeutix, Inc.
I had no idea this was a public company. Pipeline is kind of neat. OCUL is the ticker.

Vaginal Elasticity Assessment Before and After Vaginal CO2 Laser Treatment.
You got me after vaginal elasticity assessment. How do I enroll?

Briefly Reviewed: Perfect English Grammar by Grant Barrett
Initially, I bought this small (3/4th size, 200pgs) guide for my language-impaired roommates. Of course, not being a remotely adept writer myself, I had to go through it first before recommending it to others. Barrett writes for an audience somewhere between their needs and mine. “PEG” probably should not be read by someone who hasn’t finished high school, but I found it too incomplete and scattered for a scientific or financial professional looking to improve his knowledge of English.
Despite that, unless you’re familiar with copulas, gerunds, determiners and the myriad mind-numbing derivatives of various parts of speech that come with writing for a living, this is a nice refresher for the “too busy to care”. You should care, though.

9/10 for my last ten football selections (some were ML). I don’t have a read on the Panthers/Steelers game, but if I make a decision before gametime, I’ll try and make a quick post. Basketball will be interesting tonight. I’m going with DEN -3 and ML, DAL+9.5 and ML, CHI+10.5 and ML, SAC+8 and ML and ATL+1 in order of conviction. I’m enjoying the NBA and predictions increase the edifying feeling.

Bummed over some bad luck. In a 1/2 unit 6-player game, I’m 3rd to act after the binds. UTG check, call of 2 to my right and with AdJh I raise to 6. All fold except our caller villian. Flop shows Jc 2d 3s. Pot has 15 in it. Villian checks, I bet 7. Villian calls. Turn card is a 7c. Pot has 29 in it. Vil checks I bet 15, Vil calls. River is a Kc. Villain checks, I bet only 10, Vil calls and turns over 8Jc. Did I play it right?

Also lost a frustrating AI hand with JJ vs AKo. My luck!

Spoke with my attorneys today. Brafman is really a great fellow. Lawyers are generally despised, typically for good reason. Ben is not one of those. Several of my other attorneys are fantastic friends and great advisors. They all know who they are, but I have about 10 fantastic attorneys that have become friends. Hopefully it’s not just for the bills 🙂

34 thoughts on “11/7/2018”

  1. I’d love to see a deep dive on AMGN.

    Maybe slightly ambitious trying to squeeze out more value out of villain but its ok sometimes they river it. I think you could size up on the turn, he’s never folding this time because he has a jack but if you size up when he floats a flop bet with other club hands you can deny some equity.

  2. CELG! … btw SRPT has had a monumental run thus far n I know Doug is one of the best in the game, oh we will see how it goes… Im glad to see you well Martin, I know you will stay strong.

  3. Unfortunately you butchered that hand. A general rule of thumb for opening a hand after several limpers is to raise 3x the big blind +1bb per limper. And that’s for online poker where people fold–in live poker you should be going much, much bigger. People like seeing flops, and you should charge them as much as possible with a hand like AJo. I would have raised to 10-12 units preflop.

    As for the flop, 7 into 15 is less than half pot and is again way too small. On such a dry flop you can get away with this, but I would prefer a 3/4 pot size bet. People don’t like to fold. Get as many chips in as possible while you’re sure you have the best hand.

    When the turn brings the flush draw, I would once again size way up and try to get stacks in on the river. He hit his flush, that sucks. Somewhat of a cooler. Bet bigger next time.

    And JJ is only a 52% favorite against AK.

      1. Well it all depends on stack sizes, but if less than 100bb (which seems likely) against a limp/calling range, I’m thrilled to get stacks in by the river with top pair top kicker.

  4. Martin is playing with uneducated inmates. It isn’t a medium that fosters improvement. He is like a young Waitzken who is moving his queen out early against amateurs in speed chess. Martin should just play poker for social benefit. If he truly wants to improve, he should just study in prison and play once he gets out.

    I really admire Martin helping his peers in prison. I would recommend “The Blue Book of Grammar and Punctuation” for anyone who is trying to improve their grammar although it is catered to the educated. It is a truly fascinating book that expresses the beauty of linguistics.

  5. CELG.

    Also very curious in your take on today’s new Vascepa data (AMRN). The apparent activity of the mineral oil ‘placebo’ appears a rather nasty hair in the soup.

  6. I like looking at total QBR standard deviations from the mean and Points Per Game total defense statistics for the same. I then you use 2p-1 where p is the probability of my choice winning based on moneyline/spread and multiply that by my maximum bet per game say 1000 to decide how much to wager. Bill Benter’s story is very fascinating.

  7. I would bet 3/4 or even a full pot on the turn and would just check on the river (pointless to raise since it’s an overcard & completes the flush). A good player would have probably folded the weak top pair on the turn if your bet was any bigger than just 1/2 of the pot. A bad player should be forced to pay the premium if he decides to donk-call till the end.

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