12/10/2018

Biopharma/Investing
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GILD couldn’t have hired a better CEO than O’Day. Severin Schwan was never going to give up his job, so makes sense, even after 31 years with Roche. The only question is what to do with Gilead? Can you gain scale in cancer from zero? Does the O’Day hire imply a continued focus on oncology? Seems challenging… acquire/merge with Celgene or Jazz (not much scale) could be an option. If I were CELG, I’d hit the sell button on a $90b part cash/stock bid. Accretive to GILD, for a little while. Another option is to try and buy Genmab as Gilead has very little large molecule infrastructure. Morphosys is a favorite of mine and another obvious candidate, but one-drug-at-a-time doesn’t bring you scale. Another option is to actually just sell GILD to JNJ or PFE which I doubt could be accomplished (too big and probably not enough interest–JNJ does have an HIV vaccine in phase 2, though). I guess if I were O’Day, I’d start talking up a HIV clearance (cure) by 2030 as the next big commercial opportunity. The drug to end all drugs–a $50-100bn revenue per annum medicine that rids the world of HIV. Who better than GILD?

Poor Axovant with another failure.

Hikma drops its clobazam generic. This was a super-expensive medicine that many have/are raced/racing for an ANDA.

Papers I’ve Read
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Transcription factor IZKF1 is degraded during the apoptosis of multiple myeloma cells induced by kinase inhibition. Liu et al. FEBS Letters 2015.
These Chinese researchers try, but fail to elucidate very much about the cereblon-IZKF1 interaction that is heavily implicated in Celgene’s IMID drugs. By using non-specific kinase inhibitors they tried the hypothesis that phosphorylation impacts degradation of IZKF1–they found the opposite of their hypothesis but did poor scientific work with cell line choices and the ugly choice of kinase inhibitors. We will see some better papers in the next blog post.

Personal
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Toothache completely disappeared and some modest pain is now back. Going to the dentist for the third time in two weeks tomorrow.

Happy 15th month in jail is coming up in a few days!!! Going to miss this place!

Football was quite “stochastic”. I dodged the Patriots-Dolphins, Redskins-Giants massacres, but did fall victim to the Rams-Bears and Broncos-49ers upsets. Thankfully, the Bengals kept it close enough to cover. This was the weekend that probably blew up quite a few bankrolls.

13 thoughts on “12/10/2018”

  1. Bruh what do you think about Uber going public soon? I know you don’t like to drive and prefer cabbing/ubering instead so thought that you may have an interest…

  2. NFL week 15

    Chiefs -3.5 before it’s announced whether Gordon plays or not. Also take under 56.5 for the same reason.

    Crazy to not take Cowboys +3 either… spread is insane.

    Seattle v San Fransisco under 44.5 is appealing too.

    If none of these hit, forget I ever left this comment.

    If they do hit, I told you so

    Andrew

  3. Best of Luck. Best of health with your teeth and everything. I wouldn’t about Axovant. We all know what they did this summer. Remember early June and Axovant. I think share float did a rinse like 6x its outstanding count. There was some major major financial institutional participation that day. who’s got that sort of capital. wow. but they did good pushing it up for 3 or 4 days. i took the lawn chair out for that one. like Jeffrey Saut says don’t over analyze this or that in a stock move. aside from that it’s none of my business. one way to prevent personal risk and/or risk to personal safety. such as the world of escorts and hookers and every day matter of fact. such as crossing the street. etc. Be well. Hope you married that piano playing chick. Looks like she is into you big time.

    1. Somebody keeps breaking into my account. Now the administrator won’t let me delete the comments left under my name. This is not right.

  4. Ramaswamy is the most overrated entrepreneur in the history of biotech. After few lucky picks at QVT they successfully hyped him as a drug candidate picking virtuoso and got institutional money pouring in his shelved drug business. Crazy how “smart” money can easily buy into the hype, but I guess everything is possible after what we saw in Theranos.

    And you need to get your dentist to prescribe you clinamycin or metronidazole, work better on teeth infections than amoxicllin. best of luck

  5. Hey Martin, used to tune into your live streams once in a while. Noticed you loved playing Leona in League of Legends. They just came out with two ultimate skins for her, and when they released, I thought about you. Let’s play together when we can 🙂 Looking forward to it. -Eddy

  6. I’m glad you have such quick access to a dentist. As a free man, I’m paying out of my own pocket for my own care on top of the generous amount of taxes to the government. 😉

  7. Alphafold just whupped the rest of the field. CASP13 showed what ML can do against the best in the world. Maybe the industry will take deep learning seriously. Might be a bidding war on young machine learning talent that the NHL, MLB, already went through.

  8. Endpoint : back pain ? Planks, high planks 3 sets / 60 seconds per set, low planks (3 sets / 90 seconds per set , side planks (3 sets / 120 seconds per set) 7 days/wk.

    PS. Principal Amount not Principle Amount

    Thanks

  9. This JNJ Vaccine stuff pretty exciting… along with the #UequalsU … you told me before privately that you think about the pathway to a cure often. What are we missing in your mind? Any new ideas?

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