12/21/2018

980 days left.

Biopharma/Investing
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Relay raising $400m is a bit silly and should mark a top for the private biotech world. I know a lot about in silico chemistry (helped design a cloud platform with two very talented people)–there is nothing on the cutting edge here that will meaningfully change drug discovery. In silico modeling has been around since the 70s and the QM framework for calculating ligand affinity has not really matured meaningfully since then. Atomic simulations have improved and more and more drug discoverers are using them, which seems to be Relay’s schtick. Crystallography is still a gating factor followed by synthesis and in vitro work. Get a MOE, Schrodinger or open source suite and you have 95% of what you need to be a successful in silico researcher, but you still need to, you know, verify that your drug works by actually making it. The CEO is from Allergan which is probably the last place I’d want my high-tech drug discovery company CEO to come from.

Doing a ‘deep dive’ on Amgen, should be available in a few days. Don’t worry, I’ll look at some smaller companies soon.

Poor DBV huh?

And how about SPPI!? Is “breakthrough” designation a thing anyone cares about? CLDN received breakthrough designation.

RTRX finished enrollment of the drug I (and two wise colleagues) conjured for PKAN. I think this first try is not the best effort, unfortunately. The logP of the drug is quite low. I give this a 50-50 of working. We’ll find out if my first attempt at drug design works in about 6-9 months. My newer drugs are a little more exciting, but I’m rooting for the hundreds of dying PKAN patients.

Papers I’ve Read
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FGF signaling deregulation is associated with early developmental skeletal defects in animal models for mucopolysaccharoidosis type II (MPS II). Belless et al. Hum Mol Genet 2018.
Substrate accumulation and its sequelae is thought to be the primary defect in MPS/LSDs. These authors put forth a bit of a new theory and the data is somewhat interesting.

Clinical Trials I Noticed
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A Novel Therapeutic Target for Alzheimer’s Disease in Men and Women 50-85 Years of Age. University of Rhode Island. Dabigatran vs. placebo n=60.
Good luck!

Personal
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Projected release date: 8/25/2021. Day 464/1443. Loading… 32% complete.

14 thoughts on “12/21/2018”

  1. Thanks Martin. Always enjoy reading your posts. Merry Christmas to you. I hope you find joy one way or another in your first and hopefully last Christmas (pardon?!) in the institution.
    Best to you.

  2. Retrophin has a broad pipeline for R & D, however I felt that Fosmetpantotenate was carrying most of the weight from the look of skeletal structures with my untrained eye. They seem to be set up to make cash flow more consistent during research and development. Would love some report on Sparsentan and CNSA-001. CNSA-001 seems to be a new family of drugs from the name alone, but much like Gilead’s catalog of medications they could be a breakthrough in the healthcare industry. Personally biased towards phenylalanine pathway, but as a new class of drugs it possibly encompass both Psychiatry and Physiology. Could easily see drugs used to help process phenylalanine being capable of treating bipolar disorder similar to the way MAOI’s functioned.

    1. From experience actually trading, I feel that RTRX is a healthier stock then AMD, which most traders I know is the go to stock to blindly invest in. Due to your 50% projection and the recent market crash, I feel it’s a short until elaboration on their pipeline and a healthier market. Sticking to index trading until the bulls come out again. Polar opposite of last year.

  3. Your thoughts on the impending stock market collapse the MSM is talking about? They’ve been harping about for a few years but billionaires selling their stocks at the top says something. Do you think the government will do another bail out?

  4. Greetings Martin I hope this message finds you well. I found your blog while doing some research and felt like reaching out and offering you some support. Most of the comments are BioPharma or investment related so if I am posting in the wrong place I apologize.
    I’m sure you are asking yourself, why would I take time out of my day to contact you so I’ll address that very briefly. Your trial and conviction we bullshit and most likely the result of your trolling the media and the whole hair thing. You fucked up and were convicted in the media before you ever charged. I guess you are in some ways a political prisoner(don’t let that go to your head, you fucked up) That’s bullshit and while you have acted like an smug asshole at times you are a self made man and I respect that.
    The media sucks and is full of more shit than ever and the world is changing. Paris is on fire and on the brink of a revolution and the EU is weaker than it’s ever been. It’s exciting and frightening at the same time. Without knowing how much you already know and what you are interested in currently it’s kinda pointless for me try and explain now just know the chans are popping and when you get out the world will be a different place.
    Programming and Web App Development are my passions as well and I know you had some interests in those areas. We could write the first web app from prison and written by hand on paper, lol.
    Hopefully that or something I wrote made you crack a smile. Keep your head up and know that there are people who know the truth and are willing to help you from a distance. I can be reached at pack3ts@protonmail.ch will check back here for any response.

  5. Talking about private biotech, what do you think about Samumed? The last round of funding was at 12B $ valuation, interestingly, none from VCs or PEs, all coming from sovereign funds. They have published results on their androgenic alopecia and osteoarthritis drugs. Do you think they’ve got a good shot at the WNT pathway?

  6. Anyone play the Magnus Carlsen chess app? I don’t study chess anymore and I am having trouble beating 10 year old Magnus; thoughts?

  7. Was DBV not doomed from the beginning?

    AIMT uses cGMP mft’d peanut powder (aka higher margins than selling parking spots) and has killer data. And without an EpiPen, these kids are walking dead. Tell me how it doesn’t get approval, reimbursed and wide adoption. Just a costly launch!

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