8/1/18

Investing/Biopharma
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Always remember that investing is simply price calculations. Your job is to calculate accurate prices for a bevy of assets. When the prices you’ve calculated are sufficiently far from market prices, you take action. There is no “good stock” or “bad stock” or “good company”. There’s just delta from your price and their price. Read this over and over again if you have to and never forget it. Your job is to calculate the price of things and then buy those things for the best price you can. Your calculations should model the real world as thoroughly as possible and be conservative in nature.

Neurocrine is selling a lot of drug. Sometimes you’re wrong! Good for them.

It’s the end of an era for Johnson & Johnson as Stelara takes over Remicade as their best-selling drug. What an achievement, and mostly on psoriasis? Kind of incredible how patients will be diagnosed the more a treatment is effective. Build it and they will come!?

I’m going to start including “Patents I’ve Read”, as a very important source of knowledge that I try and keep up with.

Papers I’ve Read
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Computation through Cortical Dynamics. Driscoll et al. Neuron 2018.
This… this is a paper on computer science? 10-dimensional data can’t be visualized? Hold my beer.

Hearing out Ultrasound Neuromodulation. Airan and Pauly. Neuron 2018.
Funky ideas debunked. Ultrasound evokes an auditory response even at inaudible frequencies. Probably useless for neuromodulation.

Noninvasive blood tests for fetal development predict gestational age and preterm delivery. Ngo, Quake, et al. Science 2018, 360, 1133-1136.
Dr. Quake out with another banger. Drake should take notes. The cell-free fetal RNA test looks at the mother’s blood to determine delivery date. It’s as effective as ultrasound, which was a little disappointing, but my guess is it will be optimized. Pretty amazing!

Subclinical Hyperthyroidism. Biondi & Cooper. NEJM 2018.
Just in case you needed to know about a disease with no symptoms or sequelae.

Reboxetine in therapy-resistant enuresis – a randomized placebo-controlled study. Lundmark et al. J Pediatric Urology 2016.
If you’re old enough to remember Pfizer developing a reboxetine isomer, good for you. The problem with bringing reboxetine to the US is you have atomoxetine which is functionally similar (and generic). So, you could spend a lot of money “repurposing” reboxetine for ADHD, enuresis, NOH or god knows what else, and probably do just fine, but I don’t do just fine, do I?

Chronic delta9-THC in rhesus monkeys: effects on cognitive performance and dopamine D2/D3 receptor availability. John et al. JPET 2017.
I’m all for getting monkeys high and seeing what happens. Apparently you develop a tolerance to some cognitive impairment and whatever else goes away after two weeks of abstinence. Legalize away!

Personal
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Long has paled that sunny sky;
Echoes fade and memories die,
Autumn frosts have slain July.

You can imagine how surprised I was to receive a book from “Ringo” today. Ringo is a member of the canine species, and said member unfortunately lacks a uniform color. Nevertheless, despite his polychromicity and limited intellect, he successfully mailed me “Quantum Physics of Atoms, Molecules, Solids, Nuclei and Particles by Eisberg and Resnick”. This is a subject I know little of and hope to know even less. It will fit snugly on a planck under my bed until Ringo learns how to respect members of the feline species. Jokes aside, thanks you Ringo. May you outlive your namesake.

Glossary
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goiter – n – enlarged thyroid

14 thoughts on “8/1/18”

  1. Frighteningly incoherent epilogue Martin… get some sleep, kid. I’ll allow it if only for the first paragraph’s wisdom that too many people seem to forget. Also, glad you’ve heard Drake’s album by now, and were underwhelmed….?

  2. Martin- Peter Schiff has been all over the internet and news shows talking about a severe recession in a couple years, worse than the 2008 crash. His reasoning behind it is that Trump is using the same economic and employment numbers that Obama used to show that the economy is doing well. Schiff argues that the numbers are inflated and a bubble is bound to burst in a couple years. Do you have an opinion on this?

    1. I don’t know if Martin is able to be caught up with politics, but what you and many economist said so far is true. Trump is still riding the success of last administration. It’s important for People to remember that presidents don’t control economic successes, nor do they magically being jobs

      back. A company has to decide whether they should stay or not. No amount of promising dead industries like coal will make them come back. Many jobs were lost due to these stupid tariffs. Trade war shit is already backfiring in Trump.

    2. I’ve seen this. He believes it will be a currency crisis, from people losing faith in the dollar and set back on gold.

  3. Martin, You are truly a genius! The media can really fucking suck sometimes but i can just imagine yourself laughing everything off because of how stupid people can be. I am writing this because i really admire your character. I also admire the fact that you explain to people numerous times on why you do certain things but its like you’re talking to a fucking wall. Its simple! People do not understand the concepts of systems and how there are sets of algorithms in each system. whatever actions you take would have already been done later on from other people even if you decided not take these actions. Its about WHO gets the bread. You are a brilliant man and do not worry hopefully in a few years you’ll get out. no one ever completely serve their sentence anyways.

  4. I strongly prefer autumn to summer. It’s when everything around me is slowly dying that I truly feel alive, even if it’s just by comparison. Or maybe I just really like pumpkin spice lattes and I’m being way too emo about it. Who knows?
    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  5. Getting monkeys high? This comes as no great shock as a man who has personally overseen the deaths of thousands of them.

  6. Interesting stuff to read. You do have great insights in the biopharm area. You mentioned to read the history of the biopharm companies. How do you get the resource to read? Maybe you should open a class to talk about these histories. They are very interesting.

    BTW, I don’t believe the price increase is your fault. It is too political, and you are just somehow a scrapegoat.. Sorry for that..

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