9/13/18

Biopharma/Investing
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Are there too many antibody-focused companies? There are only so many antibody targets by virtue of their limitations (no intracellular targets). You have JNJ-US, ROG-VX, NOVN-VX, LLY, BMY, SAN-FP, MRK-DE, AMGN, AZN-LN, REGN, GEN-DC, ALXN, SGEN, MOR-DE, MGNX, ANAB, XOMA, etc. Once a target is of interesting, everyone can make one relatively similar product and trial it. There are a lot of potential targets, so does that shift the game to disease biology where are there actually very few intelligent players? Clinical execution is obviously important as well. Maybe we can do an analysis of all new antibody candidates and see how long it took for a fast-follower/competitor to show up…?
Doing this analysis now. My preliminary conclusion after looking at about 200 antibodies is despite the expected chase of exciting targets, there is a lot of stalling and usually more than enough room for multiple entrants. Now, about that biologics capacity…

RIP $VTL, you will be missed.

Wow, BAYN.DE really falling apart.

It will definitely be interesting to see changes in Chinese drug revenue. If you try and look at Sino (1177), it kinda looks like there is a lot of revenue growth (30% y/y) but it’s hard to tell how much is organic. Jiangsu Hengrui is all in Mandarin 🙁 otherwise I’d really like to understand that megacap ($40bn!).

Cannabis-related stocks are or will be epic shorts soon.

Personal
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I’ve been working on predictive scoring functions for NFL games. I like the Ravens!

Wishing Lil’ Wayne luck on a successful release of “THA CARTER V” — everyone go buy it!

Make sure you follow by official instagram @martinshkreli15 — which my friend Taylor is now managing (thank you, trap queen!)

Sorry I haven’t posted in a while. I was (and still am) busy reading about rare diseases.

Chess
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I’ve decided to play the Scandinavian after 1. e4 after failing miserably at the French. 1…d5 seems dynamic and tricky, more well-suited to my personality. Wish me luck!

10 thoughts on “9/13/18”

  1. Dynamic and tricky? The Scandinavian liquidates the center and gives black a solid pawn structure. Given your aptitude for amassing significant knowledge in niche areas, I would have expected the Aklehine defense or Pirc. Maybe a Sicilian.

    1. Just make sure after 1. e4 d5 2. e5 you don’t play 2… d5 or you’re back in French territory. Better is 2… c5, or my personal favorite, 2… Bf5, developing the bishop outside the pawn chain—an advantage over a normal French.

  2. I saw you speak live on youtube about the same time last year. Your analysis was pretty detailed, going after their patent and method of administering their medicine. great job back then already for understanding the bad science beind vtl. I wouldn’t have noticed it departed medicine if I hadn’t been reading your blog. Glad they are letting you do this. sounds like you for sure though the authenticity of these posts appear adequate based on the content alone. it smells like MS in here.

  3. I wouldn’t waste my time with learning scandanavian. If you want to be a beast practice the Sicilian defense. Gms don’t do scandy candy moves anymore.

  4. Thought VTL had long abandoned the ELAD, following the failure in 2015 (secondary to your now famous short thesis) – so was surprised to see this in the news once again. Look forward to more in-depth analysis of other technologies/clinical trials in this vein!

    Do you have any thoughts on SGMO’s recent MPS II data? Tantalising yet somewhat ambiguous results.

  5. I recently saw a clip of you speaking on chess and specifically addressing the paradigm of full-time study with just occasional play. That video shed perspective on the oceans of time I was wasting with chess. The creation and consumption of art, literature and music or more broadly the collection of any applicable knowledge is far more important to a young person than any game. Thank you.

  6. Hey Martin, quick question about thyroid receptor beta agonists, like those from Madrigal and Viking. I understand you don’t believe the drugs will work, would you mind explaining your reasoning behind this? Would the receptors be downregulated?

  7. Start with employing your favorite version of scholars mate and gradually add pressure to the f7 square. Shift pressure to g7 square if Black manages to castle. Dont be afraid to sacrifice a bishop or horse early on. Good luck!

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