9/20/18

Biopharma/Investing
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The cannabis bubble is actionable. I’d short TLRY, WEED, ACB, and the rest, and be patient. If I were at a hedge fund with a big “central book” (Citadel, Bridgewater, Tiger, Soros, Goldman Sachs, Third Point), I’d ask senior management to just write upside volatility or short common stock from here to eternity. Can probably make $500m to $1B.

NASH is probably the last big pharma mass-market/GP indication. Makes me jealous but also annoyed I never took it too seriously.

Clinical Trials
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An Investigational Immunotherapy Study of BMS-986310 Administered Alone and in Combination With Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors.
I wonder what 986310 is…

Alzheimer’s Disease Treatment with Combination of 40Hz Light and Cognitive Therapy. Alzheimer’s Light LLC.
Who needs drugs when you have light?

Personal
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Football season has been interesting.
Yard differential R^2 with point differential is about 0.70 (turnovers, 3rd down/4th down conversion limit R^2 from becoming 1.0). Yet, I see YF-YA as a better indicator of team strength. Turnovers and 3D/4D conversion are more random. I guess I could see which is more predictive of future point differential…
Vegas point spreads seem to have a R^2 of 0.50 to 0.70, which is a little less than what I can get without them.

28 thoughts on “9/20/18”

  1. Ayo! Great blog. Rooting for ya.

    Check out Apellis. A serious threat to Alexion. They’ve got a C3 inhibitor which prevents the extra-vascular hemolysis (C3 opsonized RBCs eaten by resident macrophages in spleen/liver) that plagues ~40% of PNH patients on Soliris. Apellis has huge effect small N data in PNH…

    …but even bigger, they’re ~80% to have the first drug for dry AMD aka geographic atrophy. Also a complement dependent disease. Already dosing phase 3 after a ph2 w/ structure and results you’d approve of. Very clean.

    Complement shutdown via C3 inhibition looks super potent and is tolerated OK w/ prior vaccinations for infections that genetic C3 defectives are susceptible to. Really could be a megablockbuster as the list of autoimmune diseases linked to complement SNPs (everything from COPD to periodontitis) is enormous.

    I’d be happy to send you a report.

    brendan

    (If you look into it then probably check out Achillion at same time. Related but more speculative. Like Akari.)

  2. You should prob keep to your nerd shit in biopharma and not talk about weed which is something you clearly and admittedly know nothing about.

    1. You don’t really need to know much about a product to identify a bubble. But I’d be surprised if Shkreli didn’t know anything about a drug that common.

    2. You’re a moron if you think these are the future Big Cannabis companies. The second it becomes legal in the US they are done. Firms that already have farms and production lines for tobacco will wipe the floor with them.

    3. What comes to medical cannabis, it is interesting to see how ignorant market participants are valuing GW pharmaceuticals and Zogenix. Both have a drug for Lennox-Gastaut-Syndrome and Dravet syndrome (difficult forms of epilepsies), GW’s drug Epidiolex is cannabis-based and Zogenix is using old fenfluramine (ZX008, low dose) which has shown remarkable results so far. Data clearly show’s that low dose fenfluramine is more robust anti-convulsant than Epidiolex and the adverse effects are about the same (maybe even a bit more adverse events seen in Epidiolex interventions).

      Still market values GWPH’s enterprise value to be 4,3 B and Zogenix EV 1,5 B. Analyst consensus thinks LSG/DS market is about 1,2-1,5 B annually so the market gives GWPH about 4x future P/S ratio (industry median) if GWPH takes 90% of the market. However, I think the market should at least split half between ZX008 and Epidiolex, given the data from clinical trials.

      I’m of course aware of fenfluramine’s history and adverse effects that come with the chronic use, but I think there’s is a moderate chance for modification potential for ZX008 to reduce these risks. Also Zogenix is using lower dosage.

      I’ve done a lot of work (about 1100 hours) reviewing research about new pharmacological interventions for Lennox-gastaut-syndrome and Dravet syndrome, so I know there will be quite high probabilities, that we find new robust interventions for LSG and DS during the next 5 years. These could easily erase most of epidiolex (and ZX008) market penetration and there’s about 15% chance this will happen before 2023.

      I think the market is smoking way too much weed valuing GWPH at 4,3 B, fair value should be at least half of that. Zogenix valuation is a bit more difficult. I think it trades close to or slightly less than its fair value given the probabilities of new interventions coming during the next 5 years.

      Martin, thank you for your awesome blog and contribution teaching us. I really think you are an honest and nice person. I would love to hear your thoughts on this subject. I’m just an ignorant, but hard working med student thinking there might be an edge here. Thanks!

      Some of the data I’m referring to:

      http://www.zogenix.com/pdf/AES%20ZX008%20Study%201.pdf
      https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/results/NCT02091375?term=epidiolex&rank=10&sect=X430126&view=results#limit

      Phase 3 here

    4. So, no constructive criticism, just “you know nothing”. Be less retarded than this and argue your position “why cannabisshit is not overvaluated” or “why cannabisshitcompanies will still grow in the future” with arguments.

    5. LP YOUR COMMENT DIDN’T AGE WELL HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA

      Don’t disrespect the God. Smoking weed doesn’t make you a weed expert!

      1. why, because of TLRY? Martin has always been telling people to short mj stocks, he knows nothing, because if they listened to him back then theyd be f’d. WEED is fine, a few others are good companies. He really knows nothing about the industry, Shkreli has never told anyone to buy anything mj related, only short. That is obvious since there are so many new companies. But to be short ALL mj related stocks is retarded advice, from an autist (far from a god).

        1. I don’t think Martin was claiming that ALL mj stocks would fail. He was just saying that the market was in a bubble. Thus if you short everything you are bound to profit overall. You are right, some companies do incredibly well even after a bubble is popped but to say martin “knows nothing” about evaluating pharma companies is absurd.

          1. Martin Shkreli is a god how dare you insult his vast intelligence. Your monkey brain is far lower on the evolutionary track than him. You should start praying to him so he does not condemn you to eternal suffering and a life of no tendies.

    6. What do you disagree with in this blog post?
      I won’t lie I am confused on why I would short any weed stock, especially when looking at projections and balance sheets.
      The weed industry shows promise and will always have a client base. However, I would short stocks that deal with only the selling of weed, other companies for example that grow, sell and use for different reasons I feel like it would be smarter to long since there is so much opportunity and options for that company.

  3. Liking this newfound respect for NASH drugs right after saying $MDGL could go to $2

    Pretty happy with my holdings in NASH thus far and I expect $MDGL and $VKTX to easily trump $ICPT in the long run. Too many safety issues with Ocaliva.

    Agreed with the weed bubble. Absolutely farcical how big it’s gotten.

  4. Agreed NASH was overlooked by many. I expect $VKTX and $MDGL to do quite well, much better than $ICPT in the years to come, and maybe a little better than $2/sh lol.

    Weed stock bull run is farcical and the top comment here made me lol. Gonna be quite the ugly wake up call post-legalization.

  5. Martin Shkreli,

    This biotech with novel science and broad platform potential needs more than a review. It needs a champion! It needs a hero! It needs serious love. It currently has zero analyst following and is early-stage.

    The company is listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange under the symbol “BTI” and on the OTCQB under the symbol “BIOAF”. Its name is Bioasis.

    Bioasis has been a Canadian company principally traded in Canada but the Canadian biotech market can suffer severe pricing inefficiency due to a lack of market depth. Canada’s specialty is natural resources not biotech. Because of NAFTA negotiations and the trade war with China risk capital has dried up in Canada and the stock is at 52-week lows. The company’s new American President and CEO also comes from a business development background at big pharma/biotech and not capital markets. He needs help.

    The company has recently moved its headquarters to the US and has been building a new American management team, Board of Directors, and Scientific Advisory Board, etc. The new President and CEO was in business development at Alexion and Bristol Myers and chose BTI after evaluating competing technologies. The new VP of R&D was formerly responsible for discovery and lifecycle management at Bristol Myers. The Scientific Advisory Board recently added Mario Salterelli formerly of Vertex to their distinguished Scientific Advisory Board, etc. The company’s scientific and regulatory path is further informed by a number of highly respected consultants.

    The company has recently announced an intention to list on NASDAQ by the end of the year. Typically this raises about US$8-US$10 million and would be to support Phase I human trials and for the broader pipeline ambitions. It needs access to deeper pockets. Given the current market capitalization of US$18 million this would ideally require a significant upward move in the stock. The company currently appears severely undervalued. The President and CEO believes no other technology comes close to achieving what this technology can do. The technology could be the first to deliver therapeutics like Herceptin across the blood-brain barrier without drilling a hole in the head. It could represent a new era in neuroscience. It could overcome the last frontier in medicine, the blood-brain barrier.

    The science was discovered by Dr. Wilfred Jefferies who works out of Nobel laureate Michael Smith’s lab at the University of British Columbia. The company’s lead program has produced exciting results and incorporates FDA approved Herceptin. Preclinical data has been published by leading Herceptin researcher Dr. Paul Lockman. Medimmune had also published a recent paper externally validating the technology. Because Bioasis’ lead program incorporates FDA approved Herceptin it is believed significantly de-risked. Herceptin has also already been shown efficacious in human brains in limited studies when delivered intrathecally. The second program incorporates FDA approved Avastin and is against glioblastoma.

    The inventor of the technology, Dr. Wilfred Jefferies, discovered the protein used to transport iron across the blood-brain barrier. It is 98% conserved across all mammals, incuding humans. Since the initial discovery the company has further isolated 2% of the protein that achieves its objective. This simple 12 amino acid peptide has been run through three different immunogenicity epitope predictors and no antigenic epitopes have been found. Again, the protein is part of the natural process used to transport iron across the blood-brain barrier in all mammals. It’s nature’s way!

    In preclinical testing the peptide has consistently transported 4%-6% of the injected dose across multiple modalities(monoclonal antibodies, enzymes, small molecules, siRNA) over the blood-brain barrier. This rate of delivery is multi-fold higher than competitors and it achieves this delivery very rapidly with solid target engagement. There is no effect on the systemic PK of the payload. It may actually enhance Herceptin’s efficacy given preclinical data!

    Again, the President and CEO says nothing comes close to achieving what this technology can. It is potentially broadly applicable(monoclonal antibodies, enzymes, small molecules, siRNA, gene therapy). Gene therapy studies commence in Q4. It offers nothing short of a potential new era in neuroscience.

    Please have a look and take a deep dive!
    With ~40% of Her2/+ breast cancer metastasizing to the brain is there finally a solution!
    Does this company represent a new era in neuroscience?

    Thanks.

  6. Martin Shkreli,

    This biotech with novel science and broad platform potential needs more than a review. It needs a champion! It needs a hero! It needs serious love. It currently has zero analyst following and is early-stage.

    The company is listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange under the symbol “BTI” and on the OTCQB under the symbol “BIOAF”. Its name is Bioasis.

    Bioasis has been a Canadian company principally traded in Canada but the Canadian biotech market can suffer severe pricing inefficiency due to a lack of market depth. Canada’s specialty is natural resources not biotech. Because of NAFTA negotiations and the trade war with China risk capital has dried up in Canada and the stock is at 52-week lows. The company’s new American President and CEO also comes from a business development background at big pharma/biotech and not capital markets. He needs help.

    The company has recently moved its headquarters to the US and has been building a new American management team, Board of Directors, and Scientific Advisory Board, etc. The new President and CEO was in business development at Alexion and Bristol Myers and chose BTI after evaluating competing technologies. The new VP of R&D was formerly responsible for discovery and lifecycle management at Bristol Myers. The Scientific Advisory Board recently added Mario Salterelli formerly of Vertex to their distinguished Scientific Advisory Board, etc. The company’s scientific and regulatory path is further informed by a number of highly respected consultants.

    The company has recently announced an intention to list on NASDAQ by the end of the year. Typically this raises about US$8-US$10 million and would be to support Phase I human trials and for the broader pipeline ambitions. It needs access to deeper pockets. Given the current market capitalization of US$18 million this would ideally require a significant upward move in the stock. The company currently appears severely undervalued. The President and CEO believes no other technology comes close to achieving what this technology can do. The technology could be the first to deliver therapeutics like Herceptin across the blood-brain barrier without drilling a hole in the head. It could represent a new era in neuroscience. It could overcome the last frontier in medicine, the blood-brain barrier.

    The science was discovered by Dr. Wilfred Jefferies who works out of Nobel laureate Michael Smith’s lab at the University of British Columbia. The company’s lead program has produced exciting results and incorporates FDA approved Herceptin. Preclinical data has been published by leading Herceptin researcher Dr. Paul Lockman. Medimmune had also published a recent paper externally validating the technology. Because Bioasis’ lead program incorporates FDA approved Herceptin it is believed significantly de-risked. Herceptin has also already been shown efficacious in human brains in limited studies when delivered intrathecally. The second program incorporates FDA approved Avastin and is against glioblastoma.

    The inventor of the technology, Dr. Wilfred Jefferies, discovered the protein used to transport iron across the blood-brain barrier. It is 98% conserved across all mammals, including humans. Since the initial discovery the company has further isolated 2% of the protein that achieves its objective. This simple 12 amino acid peptide has been run through three different immunogenicity epitope predictors and no antigenic epitopes have been found. Again, the protein is part of the natural process used to transport iron across the blood-brain barrier in all mammals. It’s nature’s way!

    In preclinical testing the peptide has consistently transported 4%-6% of the injected dose across multiple modalities(monoclonal antibodies, enzymes, small molecules, siRNA) over the blood-brain barrier. This rate of delivery is multi-fold higher than competitors and it achieves this delivery very rapidly with solid target engagement. There is no effect on the systemic PK of the payload. It may actually enhance Herceptin’s efficacy given preclinical data!

    Again, the President and CEO says nothing comes close to achieving what this technology can. It is potentially broadly applicable(monoclonal antibodies, enzymes, small molecules, siRNA, gene therapy). Gene therapy studies commence in Q4. It offers nothing short of a potential new era in neuroscience.

    Please have a look and take a deep dive!
    With ~40% of Her2/+ breast cancer metastasizing to the brain is there finally a solution!
    Does this company represent a new era in neuroscience?

    Thanks.

  7. Martin tries very hard to sound smart but doesn’t sound human at all when talking about football stuff. What the fk? Can you explain anything simply because if you can’t then you don’t understand it as Einstein have said and not sure why you’re writing like you’re a genius though.

  8. Martin is so dumb lol. he mentioned many times that he didn’t believe in marijuana LOL now he’s telling you to short it because he read wallstreet journal. stfu.

  9. Marty, you know marijuana is about to be legalized across the entirety of Canada in October and a plethora of states set in motion in November? Business is booming, look at everywhere it has opened up: Colorado, Oregon, Washington, etc.

    Also, why not pay attention to the NBA? I’ll give you a team: Utah Jazz.

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